We propose a new framework for Bayesian estimation of differential privacy,
incorporating evidence from multiple membership inference attacks (MIA).
Bayesian estimation is carried out via a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
algorithm, named MCMC-DP-Est, which provides an estimate of the full posterior
distribution of the privacy parameter (e.g., instead of just credible
intervals). Critically, the proposed method does not assume that privacy
auditing is performed with the most powerful attack on the worst-case (dataset,
challenge point) pair, which is typically unrealistic. Instead, MCMC-DP-Est
jointly estimates the strengths of MIAs used and the privacy of the training
algorithm, yielding a more cautious privacy analysis. We also present an
economical way to generate measurements for the performance of an MIA that is
to be used by the MCMC method to estimate privacy. We present the use of the
methods with numerical examples with both artificial and real data.