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Abstract
In recent years, researchers proposed a variety of deep learning models for
wind power forecasting. These models predict the wind power generation of wind
farms or entire regions more accurately than traditional machine learning
algorithms or physical models. However, latest research has shown that deep
learning models can often be manipulated by adversarial attacks. Since wind
power forecasts are essential for the stability of modern power systems, it is
important to protect them from this threat. In this work, we investigate the
vulnerability of two different forecasting models to targeted, semi-targeted,
and untargeted adversarial attacks. We consider a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)
network for predicting the power generation of individual wind farms and a
Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for forecasting the wind power generation
throughout Germany. Moreover, we propose the Total Adversarial Robustness Score
(TARS), an evaluation metric for quantifying the robustness of regression
models to targeted and semi-targeted adversarial attacks. It assesses the
impact of attacks on the model's performance, as well as the extent to which
the attacker's goal was achieved, by assigning a score between 0 (very
vulnerable) and 1 (very robust). In our experiments, the LSTM forecasting model
was fairly robust and achieved a TARS value of over 0.78 for all adversarial
attacks investigated. The CNN forecasting model only achieved TARS values below
0.10 when trained ordinarily, and was thus very vulnerable. Yet, its robustness
could be significantly improved by adversarial training, which always resulted
in a TARS above 0.46.