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Abstract
Email phishing has become more prevalent and grows more sophisticated over
time. To combat this rise, many machine learning (ML) algorithms for detecting
phishing emails have been developed. However, due to the limited email data
sets on which these algorithms train, they are not adept at recognising varied
attacks and, thus, suffer from concept drift; attackers can introduce small
changes in the statistical characteristics of their emails or websites to
successfully bypass detection. Over time, a gap develops between the reported
accuracy from literature and the algorithm's actual effectiveness in the real
world. This realises itself in frequent false positive and false negative
classifications.
To this end, we propose a multidimensional risk assessment of emails to
reduce the feasibility of an attacker adapting their email and avoiding
detection. This horizontal approach to email phishing detection profiles an
incoming email on its main features. We develop a risk assessment framework
that includes three models which analyse an email's (1) threat level, (2)
cognitive manipulation, and (3) email type, which we combine to return the
final risk assessment score. The Profiler does not require large data sets to
train on to be effective and its analysis of varied email features reduces the
impact of concept drift. Our Profiler can be used in conjunction with ML
approaches, to reduce their misclassifications or as a labeller for large email
data sets in the training stage.
We evaluate the efficacy of the Profiler against a machine learning ensemble
using state-of-the-art ML algorithms on a data set of 9000 legitimate and 900
phishing emails from a large Australian research organisation. Our results
indicate that the Profiler's mitigates the impact of concept drift, and
delivers 30% less false positive and 25% less false negative email
classifications over the ML ensemble's approach.