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Abstract
Machine learning based traffic forecasting models leverage sophisticated
spatiotemporal auto-correlations to provide accurate predictions of city-wide
traffic states. However, existing methods assume a reliable and unbiased
forecasting environment, which is not always available in the wild. In this
work, we investigate the vulnerability of spatiotemporal traffic forecasting
models and propose a practical adversarial spatiotemporal attack framework.
Specifically, instead of simultaneously attacking all geo-distributed data
sources, an iterative gradient-guided node saliency method is proposed to
identify the time-dependent set of victim nodes. Furthermore, we devise a
spatiotemporal gradient descent based scheme to generate real-valued
adversarial traffic states under a perturbation constraint. Meanwhile, we
theoretically demonstrate the worst performance bound of adversarial traffic
forecasting attacks. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets show that
the proposed two-step framework achieves up to $67.8\%$ performance degradation
on various advanced spatiotemporal forecasting models. Remarkably, we also show
that adversarial training with our proposed attacks can significantly improve
the robustness of spatiotemporal traffic forecasting models. Our code is
available in \url{https://github.com/luckyfan-cs/ASTFA}.