AIセキュリティポータル K Program
Exponential-Family Membership Inference: From LiRA and RMIA to BaVarIA
Share
Abstract
Membership inference attacks (MIAs) are becoming standard tools for auditing the privacy of machine learning models. The leading attacks -- LiRA (Carlini et al., 2022) and RMIA (Zarifzadeh et al., 2024) -- appear to use distinct scoring strategies, while the recently proposed BASE (Lassila et al., 2025) was shown to be equivalent to RMIA, making it difficult for practitioners to choose among them. We show that all three are instances of a single exponential-family log-likelihood ratio framework, differing only in their distributional assumptions and the number of parameters estimated per data point. This unification reveals a hierarchy (BASE1-4) that connects RMIA and LiRA as endpoints of a spectrum of increasing model complexity. Within this framework, we identify variance estimation as the key bottleneck at small shadow-model budgets and propose BaVarIA, a Bayesian variance inference attack that replaces threshold-based parameter switching with conjugate normal-inverse-gamma priors. BaVarIA yields a Student-t predictive (BaVarIA-t) or a Gaussian with stabilized variance (BaVarIA-n), providing stable performance without additional hyperparameter tuning. Across 12 datasets and 7 shadow-model budgets, BaVarIA matches or improves upon LiRA and RMIA, with the largest gains in the practically important low-shadow-model and offline regimes.
Membership inference attacks from first principles
Nicholas Carlini, Steve Chien, Milad Nasr, Shuang Song, Andreas Terzis, Florian Tramer
Published: 2022
Calibrating noise to sensitivity in private data analysis
Cynthia Dwork, Frank McSherry, Kobbi Nissim, Adam Smith
Published: 2006
Large-Scale Inference: Empirical Bayes Methods for Estimation, Testing, and Prediction
Bradley Efron
Published: 2010
Bayesian Data Analysis
Andrew Gelman, John B Carlin, Hal S Stern, David B Dunson, Aki Vehtari, Donald B Rubin
Published: 2013
Deep residual learning for image recognition
Kaiming He, Xiangyu Zhang, Shaoqing Ren, Jian Sun
Published: 2016
Estimation with quadratic loss
William James, Charles Stein
Published: 1961
Learning multiple layers of features from tiny images
Alex Krizhevsky, Geoffrey Hinton
Published: 2009
Parametric empirical Bayes inference: Theory and applications
Carl N Morris
Published: 1983
Conjugate Bayesian analysis of the Gaussian distribution
Kevin P Murphy
Published: 2007
Tight auditing of differentially private machine learning
Milad Nasr, Jamie Hayes, Thomas Steinke, Borja Balle, Florian Tramèr, Matthew Jagielski, Nicholas Carlini, Andreas Terzis
Published: 2023
ML-Leaks: Model and Data Independent Membership Inference Attacks and Defenses on Machine Learning Models
Ahmed Salem, Yang Zhang, Mathias Humbert, Pascal Berrang, Mario Fritz, Michael Backes
Published: 6.5.2018
Enhanced Membership Inference Attacks against Machine Learning Models
Jiayuan Ye, Aadyaa Maddi, Sasi Kumar Murakonda, Vincent Bindschaedler, Reza Shokri
Published: 11.18.2021
Systematic Evaluation of Privacy Risks of Machine Learning Models
Liwei Song, Prateek Mittal
Published: 3.24.2020
Privacy auditing with one (1) training run
Thomas Steinke, Milad Nasr, Matthew Jagielski
Published: 2023
Enhanced Membership Inference Attacks against Machine Learning Models
Jiayuan Ye, Aadyaa Maddi, Sasi Kumar Murakonda, Vincent Bindschaedler, Reza Shokri
Published: 11.18.2021
Privacy Risk in Machine Learning: Analyzing the Connection to Overfitting
Samuel Yeom, Irene Giacomelli, Matt Fredrikson, Somesh Jha
Published: 9.6.2017
Share