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Abstract
The number of disclosed vulnerabilities has been steadily increasing over the
years. At the same time, organizations face significant challenges patching
their systems, leading to a need to prioritize vulnerability remediation in
order to reduce the risk of attacks. Unfortunately, existing vulnerability
scoring systems are either vendor-specific, proprietary, or are only
commercially available. Moreover, these and other prioritization strategies
based on vulnerability severity are poor predictors of actual vulnerability
exploitation because they do not incorporate new information that might impact
the likelihood of exploitation. In this paper we present the efforts behind
building a Special Interest Group (SIG) that seeks to develop a completely
data-driven exploit scoring system that produces scores for all known
vulnerabilities, that is freely available, and which adapts to new information.
The Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) SIG consists of more than 170
experts from around the world and across all industries, providing
crowd-sourced expertise and feedback. Based on these collective insights, we
describe the design decisions and trade-offs that lead to the development of
the next version of EPSS. This new machine learning model provides an 82\%
performance improvement over past models in distinguishing vulnerabilities that
are exploited in the wild and thus may be prioritized for remediation.