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Abstract
With the growing complexity of cyberattacks targeting critical
infrastructures such as water treatment networks, there is a pressing need for
robust anomaly detection strategies that account for both system
vulnerabilities and evolving attack patterns. Traditional methods --
statistical, density-based, and graph-based models struggle with distribution
shifts and class imbalance in multivariate time series, often leading to high
false positive rates. To address these challenges, we propose CGAD, a Causal
Graph-based Anomaly Detection framework designed for reliable cyberattack
detection in public infrastructure systems. CGAD follows a two-phase supervised
framework -- causal profiling and anomaly scoring. First, it learns causal
invariant graph structures representing the system's behavior under "Normal"
and "Attack" states using Dynamic Bayesian Networks. Second, it employs
structural divergence to detect anomalies via causal graph comparison by
evaluating topological deviations in causal graphs over time. By leveraging
causal structures, CGAD achieves superior adaptability and accuracy in
non-stationary and imbalanced time series environments compared to conventional
machine learning approaches. By uncovering causal structures beneath volatile
sensor data, our framework not only detects cyberattacks with markedly higher
precision but also redefines robustness in anomaly detection, proving
resilience where traditional models falter under imbalance and drift. Our
framework achieves substantial gains in F1 and ROC-AUC scores over
best-performing baselines across four industrial datasets, demonstrating robust
detection of delayed and structurally complex anomalies.